Retail growth remains strong, but recovery is uneven

Brazilian retail sales grew 6.3% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to Stone’s Retail Index. Sales also rose 1.6% from the second quarter and were up 4.7% in the first nine months of the year.

The positive headline does not eliminate signs of moderation. September sales fell 0.3% from August, although they increased 5.4% year over year. Consumption remains resilient, but performance differs significantly across categories, regions and purchasing profiles.

The sector breakdown is central to decision-making. Fuel and lubricants grew 14.1% in the quarter, supermarkets, food and beverages rose 10.4%, and pharmacies increased 5.6%. Apparel, footwear and textiles were the only segment to decline, falling 3.5%.

For Black Friday and the holiday season, retailers should avoid relying only on an overall growth assumption. Demand, assortment, inventory, pricing, promotions and fulfillment capacity need to be adjusted by category and region.

The regional data reinforces this point. In September, the North led year-over-year growth at 10.2%, followed by the Northeast at 6.1%, while the South, Southeast and Central-West grew more moderately. Aggregate growth must therefore be translated into market-specific commercial and operational plans.

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